57th Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var (2.1) Stage 2 » Villefranche-sur-Mer › Vence (131.8km)
Prelude
It seems like Santiago Buitrago found himself in a situation where the most deserving doesn't always come out on top. Christian Scaroni barely managed to catch up with the swift Colombian on the final climb to Gourdon. However, in the sprint, both he and Lenny Martinez were ultimately outsmarted by the savvy Italian, who, after a three-year drought, claimed his second victory in two days.
EF Education Easy Post, which took responsibility today and controlled the early breakaway all day, didn't get what it deserved, with both Alexander Jefferson Cepeda and Richard Carapaz ultimately falling short against the stronger riders from XDS Astana Team and Bahrain Victorious. Jarno Widar (Lotto) showed he’s a class rider and finished 5th, just behind Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Team Astana), who I had favored for the win today, but who came a bit short.
This puts Scaroni in a strong position for the overall win, especially with a final stage that suits him even better than today. Day 2 features the traditional stage that has been part of the race for the past two years and on these occasions served as the final stage of the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes. Despite the hilly terrain, this stage didn’t cause huge separation in 2024, with Benoit Cosnefroy outsprinting about 25 riders and securing the overall victory. The year before, in 2023, Aurélien Paret-Peintre arrived slightly ahead of a group of about a dozen riders.
In the General Classification, the gap between the top 3 and the rest of the top 10 is already quite substantial, with the closest chasers nearly a minute behind.
Parcours
The race begins in Villefranche-sur-Mer, goes a bit eastbound first to head predominantly westward afterwards and conclude in Vence. The course spans a distance of 131.8 km, so it’s a short and nervous stage, featuring four significant climbs. Just like on the first day, there aren't many flat sections.
Just after the start in Villefranche-sur-Mer, the peloton will tackle the first climb, the Col d'Eze, setting the tone for the day. It’s a 1st Category climb, with its summit at 498 meters altitude. The climb has a length of 6.9 Km at an average gradient of 5.1%.
The route continues to climb slightly after the summit of the Col d’Eze, but after the descent and just before reaching Contes at the foot of the next climb, the Col de Châteauneuf, there is the first bonus sprint 41 km into the race, where 3, 2, and 1-second time bonuses can be earned. The Col de Châteauneuf itself is another 1st Category climb, topping at 620 m of altitude. It has a length of 6.9 Km at a 6.3% average gradient. Once the riders crest it, they will have covered 50km, with 81km still to go.
Next, the riders will face the Col de Carros, It’s a 2nd Category climb, of 5.3 Km in length and an average gradient of 5.2%. It crests with 51 km to go.
Approximately 36 km before the end of the stage, the peloton passes the finish line for the first time, albeit in the opposite direction. There is still a local lap to be completed, in which the Montée de la Sine could be decisive. Before attacking that climb, there’s another bonus sprint, at 31km from the finish in Tourettes sur Loup.
The Montée de la Sine is a 3rd Category climb, standing at 332 meters, with a length of 3.6 km at an average gradient of 5.3%. This climb precedes the final descent into Vence and has the potential to be crucial for the stage outcome. It was here in 2023 that Aurélien Paret Peintre left his companions behind and rode to the stage victory.
Once they crest the top of Montée de la Sine, there remain just over 3km to the finish in Vence. There’s a very short uphill section at 2km from the finish, but the rest of the route is flat or slightly downhill.
Weather
Temperatures remain pretty cool averaging around 12.8°C, with a minimum of 10.5°C and a maximum of 14.1°C. The wind will be light, with an average speed of approximately 6.1 km/h and will be blowing from the southeast (which means it will be a predominantly headwind for most of the race). There is no expected precipitation, unlike today.
Tactics
The XDS Astana Team will have to work hard to defend Christian Scarponi's lead, focusing particularly on Santiago Buitrago and Lenny Martinez, who are 4 and 10 seconds behind, respectively. Given the significant time gaps for many riders, it's not unlikely that Astana might allow a group of non-threatening riders to break away. The Kazakh-Italian team doesn't need to bother about the stage win tomorrow, and will shift it’s entire focus on the GC victory.
I do expect Bahrain Victorious to attempt a final offensive to snatch the victory, but it's rather unlikely that a last-ditch effort on the Montée de la Sine could be successful as this climb isn't particularly challenging and the XDS Astana team looks solid. Nevertheless, Aurélien Paret Peintre managed to gain 5 seconds on his closest pursuers here two years ago, so it's not impossible.
The challenge for Bahrain Victorious is that the toughest climbs, the Col d’Eze and the Col du Chateauneuf, are at the beginning of the stage. Launching an early raid would be a high-risk strategy, and I do not consider it likely, but it's not entirely out of the question. The bonus sprint, 41 km into the race where 3 seconds await the first to cross the line, might be something Bahrain Victorious targets, even though it won't be easy, as it is situated on a flat section. And the problem with such a strategy, even for a very short stage, is that the XDS Astana Team has considerable strategic depth. For Bahrain Victorious, making the race very hard will still be a prerequisite to having a chance at the final Montée de la Sine.
For Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, which came here aiming for GC and stage victory, the overall win seems to have slipped away. However, the team has several riders who can prevail in a small group sprint. Therefore, the team will focus on helping to control the race if necessary.
In the end, I expect the most likely scenario to be a limited group of one or two dozen riders battling it out on the Montée de la Sine. Someone outsmarting the others (scenario 2023) or a small group sprint (scenario 2024) are both quite probably outcomes.
Main Favorites
Dorion Godon (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) ✨✨✨A sixteenth place today indicates that his form is excellent. With his sprinting ability, he should always finish within the top 3 in a group sprint tomorrow.
Aurélien Pareit-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) ✨✨✨
Aurélien was in good shape today, but not in the same top form as last week; otherwise, he probably would have managed to stay with the best. His illness earlier this week might have hampered him a bit. This stage suits him much better, given his 1st place in 2023 and his 2nd place last year. If he manages to reach the front in Vence, he will be the top contender.Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) ✨✨✨It will be difficult for the Colombian to still grab the overall victory here. This means he almost has to win the stage, which will be no easy task. Soloing away on the Montée de la Sine is probably the only way, but that will be no easy feat.
Ewen Costiou (Arkea B&B Hotels) ✨✨✨Fantastic performance today from Ewan, resulting in an 11th place, after already showing his top form in Fayence (6th). He tried an ultimate attack in the pre-finale here last year but failed to stay away. With the experience he has, it might work this time.
Louis Barré (Intermarché - Wanty) ✨✨✨ Louis remains the most consistent rider of IWG this spring, and tomorrow is a day when a lone flyer could go far. Timing will be crucial.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education Easy Post) ✨✨Richard tried and took responsibility today, after an impressive effort from his team all day long. Knowing his sense of honor, he will try again tomorrow to show that one day is not like the other. I also see him making some attacks, as repeatedly happened at the end of the 2024 edition.
Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana Team) ✨✨His focus will entirely be on the GC win, but it could very well be that the best in this race end up together in the front in the end again.
Paul Lapeira (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) ✨✨ What a wealth of talent at Decathlon, as Paul Lapeira is also very fast. Today he finished 16 minutes behind. This could mean one of two things: either something is seriously wrong, or he deliberately saved himself with an eye on the final stage. I have no idea which of the two it is, but I am certainly considering a resurgence in Vence, albeit with a bit of hesitation.
Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) ✨✨ I thought his attack today was an excellent move, but it ultimately came to nothing. However, it shows that the fast Italian all-rounder is feeling good. He is not without a chance if it comes down to a sprint tomorrow, but his team has faster alternatives in Godon and Lapeira.
Joseph Blackmore (Israel Premier Tech) ✨✨ Joseph is not on his best yet, but he’s getting better day by day. He’s a smart rider, who might see an opportunity tomorrow to grab the stage victory.
Keep an eye on:
✨ Victor Lafay (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Kevin Geniets (Groupama FDJ), Henri Vandenabeele (Lotto), Jordan Jegat (Team TotalEnergies), Alexandre Delettre (Team TotalEnergies), Harry Sweeny (EF Education Easy Post), Anthony Perez (Cofidis), Quentin Pacher (Groupama FDJ), Guillaume Martin (Groupama FDJ)
Outcome
A win for Ewen Costiou (Arkea B&B Hotels) with Louis Barré (Intermarché Wanty) 2nd and Dorion Godon (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) 3d.
Great shouts with Costiou and Barre, think both are really underrated in general!