25th Santos Tour Down Under (2.UWT) Stage 4 » Glenelg › Victor Harbor (157.2km)
Prelude
A name not on my radar, Javier Romo, emerged as the unexpected but well-deserved winner.A lesson learned, as Javier was one of the riders who briefly showed himself on Menglers Hill. The race remained in a gridlock for a rather long time, with the only notable incident being Stevie Williams’ crash in the feed zone. In the approach of the final Knotts Hill climb, Ineos-Grenadiers masterfully put pressure in the downhill section, with Kwiatkowski initiating the action once the last ascent started. Despite attempts by Remi Rochas, Eulalio Afonso, and Luke Plapp the favorites matched each other well, which led to a dozen riders cresting over the top together. Romo attacking at 5km from the finish turned out to be the right move. Clever tactics from the lean looking and incredibly strong Spaniard. The group turned out too big too cooperate and despite having five Lidl-Trek riders in the chasing group, a couple of isolated counterattacks were the only response -in vain.
On Stage 4, we’re looking at a stage that could very well end in a sprint of quite a large group of riders, even if that’s all but a certainty. In 2023 the exact same finale was featured in Stage 2, and we saw Rohan Dennis claim victory after a handful of attackers broke away on Nettle Hill. For those who remember well, it was a tough climb, highlighted by the moment when then-GC leader Alberto Bettiol cramped up and angrily hurled a bottle at a journalist.
This is also the longest stage of the Tour Down Under. Additionally, it’s the only stage in the entire Santos Tour Down Under without circuit laps. The route takes the pack on a scenic journey, heading south from Adelaide along the coast to finish in Victor Harbor.
Parcours
The stage spans 157.2 km with an elevation gain of approximately 2443 meters, averaging about 15 meters of altitude gain per kilometer. It’s a rather challenging stage with significant elevation to conquer. After about 86 kilometers, riders will face their first major ascent: the Cat 2 Parawa Hill. This climb stretches for 2.9 kilometers, featuring a maximum gradient of 16.7% and an average gradient of just over 7%. Points for the KOM classification are to be gained here.
From the top of Parawa Hill, there are about 70 km remaining to the finish and about 50km to the base of Nettle Hill. The route will be a mostly undulating but doesn’t present too many difficulties, except for a little stint just before Nettle Hill. The roads are not too wide and the downhill section just before Nettle Hill will certainly test the nerves of the riders, especially with what Ineos-Grenadiers did on stage 3 in mind.
Nettle Hill starts at 23 km from the finish and the finale is guaranteed to start here, if it hasn’t already. The climb features an average incline of 8.1%, with a peak gradient of 15.6%. Contrary to Knotts Hill, the devil here is in the second part of the climb.
Once the riders have crested Nettle Hill, the rest of the route will be mostly downhill, except for a stretch between 12 and 9 km from the finish, where the riders will encounter a plateau.
The finish in Victor Harbor will this time be at the Esplanade. Riders will race down Armstrong Road before a double corner at 700 meter from the finish awaits hem. First a 90° right-hander, followed by a sweeping left-hand turn on to George Main Road and a 500-metre battle to the line. The roads are sufficiently wide. The wind in the last 500 meters should be a cross-tailwind coming from the right side of the riders.
The Weather
Soft temperatures hovering around 20°C with no chance of rain. The wind is apparent, with speeds hoovering around 15km/h, depending on the location. The final 25 km of the race features a tailwind on Nettle Hill (see blue contour below), and a headwind of about 15km/h on the subsequent remaining part to the finish.
The Race (tactics & more)
Stage 3 of the Santos Tour Down Under made it evident that about a dozen riders are on a similar level, all cresting together over the top of Knotts Hill. In the toughest stage ever in the history of the Tour Down Under, I had expected a bit of a smaller group to be honest. Perhaps the prospect of a final showdown on the Willunga Hill stage still looms over the TdU, making some riders cautious about going ‘all in’ too early.
With multiple attackers neutralizing each other on Knotts Hill, the group turned to to be slightly too large to cooperate effectively, despite Lidl-Trek having five riders in the group of 17 that charged towards the finish. This created a scenario where a shrewd solo attack, at the exact right moment, secured the victory.
It’s quite likely that one Stage 4 we’ll see a kind of repeat of today’s scenario, with the race only breaking truly open on the last climb, Nettle Hill. Especially the second part of the climb is though, and I expect a high pace in the first part, followed by more aggressive attacks in the second part compared to today. The climb is sure to splinter the front of the peloton again, but the question is how many will crest over the top together. Will there be another dozen riders, like today ? Or will the group be smaller, like in 2023.
Unlike Stage 3, there is a much longer distance between the summit and the finish. Yet, in the 2023 edition of this stage in the Santos Tour Down a group of five attackers also triumphed over the chasers. They had managed to create a significant gap after Nettle Hill, up to 45 seconds at one point even. At that time, the wind direction was quite similar, but with an much stronger headwind reaching up to 30 km/h. Now it will be more akin to 15km/h even if gusts up to 30km/h are possible.
In case a group successfully breaks free on Nettle Hill it might take time for the peloton to organize and set up a chase, as not many teams initially will have domestiques left and the stronger teams that have are likely to be also represented in the attack group. That said, many factors could influence the outcome. Will the leader, Romo, be part of the lead group or not. Will some teams have multiple riders in front ? Is Lidl-Trek outnumbering the others again, and will they take their responsibility this time? In 2023, there was exemplary cooperation in the front group, with everyone being fully committed. Based on today’s stage 3 and the apparent equal level among about a dozen riders, I think there’s a fair chance we’ll end up with a group that’s a bit too large to see excellent cooperation appear, which could lead to, at least, a partial regrouping from behind.
In 2023, the gap closed quickly over the last 10 kilometers, with the attackers losing about 35 seconds overall, underscoring that even strong cooperation in the front doesn’t guarantee a successful breakaway. While a repeat of the 2023 scenario is certainly possible, I believe the most likely outcome, albeit by a slim marging, is a regrouping of about one to two dozen riders on the way to Victor Harbor. Late attacks within such a group remain a viable tactic that we can expect, but a small bunch sprint finish seems more likely.
Main Favorites
Jhonatan Narvaez (UAE Team Emirates XDS) ✨✨✨✨Jhonatan looked excellent but adopted a rather defensive posture, which nearly led him to victory if not for Javier Romo. I expect to see the same approach in this stage, as he’ll be one of the top favorites with his fast finish. Team UAE most avoid a regrouping, and he’ll likely neede Vine at his disposal to apply pressure.
Finn-Fisher Black (Red Bull BORA Hansgrohe) ✨✨✨ One of the strongest riders in the peloton today, his 2nd place finish has moved him up to 3rd in the general classification. He was somewhat isolated in the finale, with Zwiehoff and Pithie nowhere near him. I expect we’ll see more aggressive riding from him tomorrow, as he’ll need to avoid a repetition of such a scenario.
Corbin Strong (Israel - Premier Tech) ✨✨✨ Corbin and his entire team were blown away, likely due to poor positioning as IPT was too far back leading into the downhill towards Knotts Hill. He and Stevie Williams finished 35 seconds behind, putting both of them out of contention for the general classification. He might have to hope for a regrouping tomorrow, but in case that happens, he stands a very good chance for a sprint victory.
Stephen Williams (Israel - Premier Tech) ✨✨ ✨ Stevie crashed today, which likely affected his performance, even though he mentioned yesterday that his sensations weren’t great and today added that he ran out of minerals. With the general classification out of reach, he should now focus on securing a stage victory. If he makes it to the front group, he’ll be one of the main contenders, but my level of confidence in that happening has decreased a tiny bit after today’s stage and his crash.
Luke Plapp (Team Jayco AlUla) ✨✨✨ Luke tried on Knotts Hill but he fell short. He’ll resort to the same tactics with his team mates Chris Harper and Mauro Schmid tomorrow. I had expected the move that Romo did from him.
Oscar Onley (Team PicNic PostNL): ✨✨✨ He put in a strong effort and looked excellent on the climb, but winning this stage will be challenging due to his lack of a fast sprint. He’ll need to adopt a more aggressive strategy on Nettle Hill, but shaking off a rider like Narvaez won’t be easy.
Albert Withen Philipsen (Lidl-Trek) ✨ ✨✨ Albert lived up to all the recent praise, as he and Juan Pe Lopez followed the moves on Knotts Hill with ease. Lidl-Trek had the strongest team today, but ultimately, they didn’t capitalize on it, as Adam Blythe noted in his commentary. In hindsight, Philipsen could have been the one to make the move that Romo did.
Magnus Sheffield (Ineos-Grenadiers) ✨✨ Magnus had flown a bit under my radar but I loved the aggressive tactics they displayed. He did try briefly to reel in Javier, but didn’t look capable, or willing to spend too much energy. Yet, Nettle Hill should provide another opportunity.
Javier Romo (Movistar) ✨✨ Quite a surprise, even if he showed some signs of excellent form on stage 2 as well. He did look very strong on Knotts Hill so I do expect him to be able to follow moves on Nettle Hill after today’s performance. He’ll be keen to keep his ochre leader jersey, which might force him to cover some moves in the finale, as he’ll be likely isolated.
Thomas Gloag (Visma Lease A Bike) ✨✨ I shamelessly forgot to mention him yesterday, and that was a mistake, as Thomas demonstrated his good form by finishing 5th. As one of the stronger climbers in the field, his GC ambitions remain intact. Winning the stage will be challenging, but I expect him to be in the mix again tomorrow.
Matthew Brennan (Visma Lease a Bike) ✨✨ Nettle Hill will prove too challenging, just like Knotts Hill in stage but it still is a 50-50 chance there will be a regrouping, depending on how hard the attackers push at the front. He’ll need to hope for such a scenario, but if it happens, he’ll be one of the riders with the best shot at victory.
Keep an eye on
✨ mentions for : Bastien Tronchon (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Lukas Nerurkar (EF Education), Chris Harper (Jayco Alula), Mauro Schmid (Jayco Alula), Sergio Higuita (XDS Astana Team), Afonso Eulalio (Bahrain Victorious), William Junior Lecerf (Soudal Quickstep), Remy Rochas (Groupama FDJ), [edit: Jay Vine]
Outcome
A win for Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), with Jhonathan Narvaez (UAE Team Emirates XRG) 2nd and Albert Withen Philipsen 3th
