19th Trofeo Serra Tramuntana (1.1) » Lluc › Selva (151.3km)
Prelude
The third day of racing on Mallorca bring us the Serra de Tramuntana Trophy on Friday, the 31st. As the name suggests, we are in the Tramuntana mountains, located in the northern part of the island, which was designated a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2011. Part of the race course is similar to what the riders had to do in the Trofeo Calvia, even if the race takes place more in the northeastern part of the island.
The parcours largely follows the same circuit loop as last year. However, with a different starting point and the organization reversing the direction of the final loop, the race has undergone some changes. Although the same climbs are included as last year, two of them are now tackled in the opposite direction.
Last year, Belgian Lotto rider Lennert van Eetvelt claimed victory by outsprinting Alexander Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates). The early breakaway was reeled in at the Col de Sóller, around 45km from the finish. The decisive moves occurred at the Coll de Puig Major, 25km from the finish, where the three riders managed to distance themselves from the leading group.
Parcours
The race covers a total of 151 kilometers, beginning in Lluc and concluding with an uphill finish in Selva. The route forms an eight shape, first heading northeast on the island before looping back westward. In the middle part, the riders will face the climbs before continuing on a long, flatter stretch to the finish in Selva. The organizers likely anticipate a chase between several groups in the final part.
Over a distance of 151 km, approximately 2036 meters of elevation are featured, averaging about 13.48 meters of altitude gain per kilometer. Not as hard as the Trofeo Calvia but still sufficient of elevation to put some fatigue in the legs. The devil is in the finale of this race, with the finish line positioned on a short but steep kicker. Most the climbs are situated in the middle part of the race,where a sequence of three ascents awaits the riders (see red contour on screenshot above) : Coll de Sa Batalla (1), Coll de Puig Mayor(2), and Coll de Sóller(3). With the direction of the circuit being reversed, the climbs are this year a bit more front-loaded compared to last year’s edition. The Coll de Sóller has now taken over the honor of being the final climb, replacing the Coll de Puig Mayor.
The challenging section begins at the 62km mark with the Coll de Sa Batalla, a 10km climb averaging a 4.9% gradient. The gradients remain below 6% except for a few short, steeper sections. Unlike the winding Coll de Sóller, this climb features fewer hairpins, even if there are some in the middle section.
After cresting Coll de Sa Batalla, a brief 5km descent leads to the base of the Coll de Puig Mayor, which is basically the highest peak on the island. It’s another 7.7km climb with an average gradient of approximately 4.1%. The riders will be tackling the easier slope of this climb. The first part includes a nearly flat section, followed by a steeper middle section that averages 6.5% over 3 kilometers. This is where attacks are likely to make a difference.
After cresting Puig Mayor, riders face a fast and technical 15km descent, leading to the base of the final climb, the Col de Sóller. This climb, also featured in the Trofeo Calvia, is 8.5km long with a 5.4% gradient. It’s filled with hairpins and maintains a fairly consistent gradient throughout.
After cresting the top, the first part of the descent is very technical, with lots of hairpins. Riders willing to take risks or bridge to the front can make significant gains here. The descent spans about 5km, followed by a long, flat section of approximately 30km leading to the finish in Selva, which could set the stage for an interesting chase.
The final part of the race is quite steep. The last kilometer has an average gradient of 3%, mainly due to a 500m “Muro” in downtown Selva. This technical climb winds through narrow streets, barely wide enough for two cars to pass. The average gradient in the last 500 meters is 8.6%, with peaks up to 12%. It’s going to be crucial to be well-positioned at the front of the group if multiple riders reach the last kilometer together. The final 250 meters of the race feature no fewer than four corners, making it extremely difficult to overtake riders in this section.
The Weather
The weather on Mallorca has been a bit capricious lately, but it seems we’ll have a day with mild winds, not exceeding 11 km/h. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, around 10°C, which might feel a bit chilly for those accustomed to the Spanish sun. The wind on the climbs will be mostly a tailwind, the last 35km mostly a (moderate) headwind (see green contour below)
Tactics
Considering the series of climbs in the middle part of the race, I expect the race to remain fairly controlled for a long time. A small group of attackers might be allowed to break away, but it likely won’t be too large. Tudor maintained strict control in the Trofeo Calvia, which was somewhat unexpected to me. Allowing too large a group to break away here could be risky, and I can see Tudor employing similar tactics to keep things in check.
I suspect the race will break open on the Coll de Sa Batalla, given its length and the short descent that leads directly into the Puig Mayor. Waiting for the Puig Mayor might be less effective, as that climb is followed by a long descent where regrouping could occur. We will probably see many of the names that already popped up in Trofeo Calvia, and I expect aggressive racing from teams like Intermarché-Wanty,UAE Team Emirates XRG, Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe and XDS Astana Team.
Whatever is the case, the Col de Soller is were the real decimation will likely happen. The climb is not the hardest,but the succession of three climbs will probably lead to a splintering of larger lead group, or fuga de la fugas.
I appreciate the organizers’ decision to include a longer flat section to the finish, once the section with climbs is finished. This could indeed result in an battle between a group of strong contenders who manage to break free on the Puig Mayor or Sóller and a chasing group. While the wind seems to be a rather marginal factor, compared to previous days, the lack of a tailwind in the final 35km flat section doesn’t really favor potential attackers in this section. That said, the likelihood of a group staying in front will depend less on the wind and more on the cooperation within the leading and chasing groups.
I expect to see some attacks in the ultimate part of the race, as some riders won’t want to rely solely on their uphill sprint finish. There are limited opportunities in the last 30 kilometers, except for a 500-meter stretch just after the village of Lloseta, about 6 kilometers from the finish, where a 500-meter uphill section could serve as an ideal launching path.
The run in to the finish in Selva will be hectic, with the corners in the last 500 meters making positioning crucial. It will be difficult to overtake riders on this incline unless you are significantly stronger.
Main Contenders
Antonio Morgado (UAE Team Emirates XRG) ✨✨ ✨✨ So far, he’s been the standout rider of the opening week in Europe, as he seems unable to finish outside the podium. Given his ability to handle climbs like these, I believe he’s the top contender for victory, especially with his impressive finishing kick on such inclines. It would be fascinating to see him sprint against Hirschi.
Marc Hirschi (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) ✨✨✨✨ Marc was caught in the UAE Team’s tactics, despite Tudor’s strong performance for much of the race. I think he’ll try to ride a bit more aggressively, but there’s a real risk he’ll again face multiple UAE Team Emirates riders in the finale, who will try to wear him down. If he makes it to the front on the finish climb in Selva, he’ll be hard to beat, and I only see Morgado capable of doing so.
Jan Christen (UAE Team Emirates XRG) ✨✨✨ ✨ The boldness of the young Swiss rider was once again clearly demonstrated in Trofeo Calvia. Although he said that he didn’t have “strong legs,” his effort to return to the front of the race was particularly strong. Compared to last year, he seems to have gained power. An attack by Christen in the last five kilometers of this race could set up his teammate Morgado perfectly. With his time-trialing abilities and current form, he should definitely be able to handle this.
Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) ✨✨✨Alex Aranburu achieved a respectable 8th place in the Trofeo Calvia, though he likely hoped for a better result. This finish should suit him much more than the one in Palmanova, although the cornering might make it challenging for him to fully unleash his raw power. His finish on Mur de Durbuy (Baloise Belgium) last year was impressive, so he surely has the capacities to do well here.
Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana Team) ✨✨✨ His chase of Frederik Wandahl was perfectly timed, and he delivered anoter great performance in Calvia. XDS Astana is clearly highly motivated lately, and everything seems to be falling into place for them. I expect several of their riders to be at the front once they crest the Col de Sóller. They should leverage their numbers, but it will be challenging to secure a win against some of the top teams like UAE Team Emirates. Scaroni seems to be the best candidate for a podium finish.
Roger Adria (Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe) ✨✨✨ He’ll find a more favorable finish here than in Calvia, and along with Frederik Wandahl, he’ll lead RBH in this race. I expect Wandahl to race aggressively once again, while Adria’s best chance for victory is to ensure he’s in the lead group after the Col de Sóller.
Jon Barranetxea (Movistar) ✨✨✨ An impressive sprint win from the chasing group in the Trofeo Calvia. Uphill sprinting is his specialty, and with his current form, he should be able to stay with the lead group and has a strong chance of finishing in the Top 5.
Alessandro Covi (UAE Team Emirates XRG) ✨✨✨ Despite his crash in the GP Valenciana, his form remains excellent, as he was among those trying to attack in the final of the Trofeo Calvia and he briefly tried again today in Ses Salines. Could this be his moment, following Jan and Antonio's standout performances in the opening races? If he can leverage the strength in numbers of UAE Team Emirates in the finale, why not.
Anthon Charmig (XDS Astana Team)✨✨ Astana is off to a great start in 2024, and the team morale reflects that. Charmig won the sprint among the chasers in Communitat Valenciana and will be one of many cards XDS Astana can play.
Urko Berrade (Equipo Pharma Kern) ✨✨ We didn’t see Urko much in Trofeo Calvia, but I have no doubt that his form is still good, so I maintain confidence that he can obtain a good result here.
Clement Champoussin (XDS Astana Team) ✨✨ The duo attack with Scaroni in the Trofeo Calvia showed that his legs remain excellent, especially after his prominent presence in the opening weekend in the Valencia Region. I expect Clement to be at the front again here, but it won’t be easy for him to finish this race as the winner.
Kamiel Bonneu (Intermarché Wanty) ✨✨ It was great to see that Kamiel has come out of the winter preparation looking strong. He was quite active in the Trofeo Calvia, and these climbs should suit him well. With his powerful uphill sprint (as seen in the Arctic Race of Norway), he should be able to play a role in the finale, although positioning might not be his strongest point.
Louis Barré (Intermarché Wanty) ✨✨ Winter tests don’t lie, so the surprise level wasn’t too high when Louis manifested himself as one of the most active riders in the Trofeo Calvia. His attempt was the prelude to the final attack of the XDS Astana duo that did manage to stay away, so he came close to an excellent result. Finishing 13th in the sprint underscored that even more. I expect him even more in the Trofeo Andratx-Pollenca, but it could happen here as well.
Fabio Christen (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team)✨✨I debated whether to include Fabio for the Trofeo Calvia, but I thought the tough sequence of climbs would ultimately be too much for him. That clearly wasn’t the case, indicating he has made some progress, considering he’s not a pure climber. He performs well on an uphill finish, so I see him finishing in the Top 10 here.
Frederik Wandahl (Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe) ✨✨ Bittersweet end to a marvelous race for Frederik, in Trofeo Calvia, where he just fell next to the podium, bested by the inevitable Antonio Morgado. The climbs here are pretty known to him, as he stays a lot of time on the island. I was mostly impressed by his descending skills, putting so much pressure on Scaroni & Champoussin. Those skills could be very useful in this race as well.
Keep an eye on ✨
Simone Velasco (XDS Astana Team), Alex Molenaar (Caja Rural Seguros RGA), Diego Ulissi (XDS Astana Team), Eric Antonio Fagundez (Burgos Burpellet BH), Thomas Gagchinard (Total Energies), Henri Vandenabeele (Lotto), Markus Hoelgaard (Uno-X Mobility), Marijn Van Den Berg (EF Education Easy Post)
The Outcome
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict a win for Alessandro Covi (UAE Team Emirates), before Antonio Morgado (UAE Team Emirates) and Marc Hirschi (Tudor Pro Cycling Team).
